I’ve been predicting since the beginning that the Token price will gradually decline to somewhere closer to 10k than 20k, a prediction that has so far been completely false. My judgement of the people who buy and sell Tokens might be way off, but I feel like it’s also likely that Blizzard inflates the price beyond the point normal supply and demand would otherwise place it.
I should read around the WoW auction house blogs to see whether there’s been much speculation or experimentation into the mechanics that control the actual Token price. I will begin my own speculation now.
I have to assume they started with an idea of how much gold they want to sell for $20. Maybe based on 3rd party gold price, maybe on player psychology and focus testing.
Then they would probably have some kind of price index that they can use to calculate inflation for each realm and adjust for it so the value of buying gold is more or less the same between realms.
Then maybe add a small variable that makes the price move by incidental amounts in step with actual supply and demand, to give players a sort-of-true impression that the price is affected by actual supply and demand.
This is what makes the most sense to me based on what I’ve read and observed. A price this steady is suspiciously suspicious.
I would really love to hear any competing theories though.